To predict the degree of success that a new product will likely to enjoy in the market, we need to do new-product forecasting. Quantitative forecasting methods are not suitable for predicting the success of new products, because they depend on a historical data. To make forecasts for new products, judgmental methods are better because there are many uncertainties and few known relationships. However, there are many ways to make reasonable forecasts for new products. They usually include both qualitative judgments and quantitative tools of one type or another.
In new-product forecasting, we have to deal with the lack of known information. One way to deal with the problem is to incorporate a modified version of the Delphi method. Ken Goldfisher used this method while he worked in Nabisco Foods group’s Information Services Division. There are many market research activities that are useful in new-product forecasting. Surveys of potential customers for example, can provide useful information about the tendency of buyers to adopt a new product.
